Cheltenham vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Rochdale?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cheltenham have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Cheltenham win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2014 | Rochdale 2-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2013 | Cheltenham 1-2 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 25, 2013 | Cheltenham 0-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Dec 21, 2012 | Rochdale 4-1 Cheltenham | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Rochdale vs Cheltenham on Apr 26, 2014
How many goals should we expect?
Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cheltenham sit 14th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Rochdale sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cheltenham vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Cheltenham vs Rochdale played?
- Cheltenham vs Rochdale is played on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.