Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 22Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Arena Chertanovo, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Chertanovo Moscow the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Cherepovets. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets?
Chertanovo Moscow starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,726 vs 1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chertanovo Moscow have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Cherepovets have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tver(home) | 4-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Murom(home) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Zvezda St. Petersburg(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Tosno(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 2(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tver(away) | 0-5 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Chertanovo Moscow win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Cherepovets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Cherepovets 1-3 Chertanovo Moscow | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Cherepovets 0-4 Chertanovo Moscow | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Chertanovo Moscow 3-1 Cherepovets | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Cherepovets vs Chertanovo Moscow on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chertanovo Moscow score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Cherepovets score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chertanovo Moscow | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Cherepovets | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chertanovo Moscow sit 3rd in Second League - Group 2 (23 points from 11 matches) and Cherepovets sit 6th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chertanovo Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 35 |
| 6 | Cherepovets | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Cherepovets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets?
- The Footlab model makes Chertanovo Moscow the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Cherepovets.
- Where and when is Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets played?
- Chertanovo Moscow vs Cherepovets is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Chertanovo, in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.