Irkutsk vs Murom: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 22Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Irkutsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Irkutsk vs Murom?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Irkutsk (1,679) and Murom (1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Irkutsk have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Murom have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(home) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cherepovets(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Zvezda St. Petersburg(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Irkutsk score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Murom score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irkutsk | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Murom | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Irkutsk sit 14th in Second League - Group 2 (10 points from 11 matches) and Murom sit 4th (22 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Murom | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 4 | Murom | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 14 | Irkutsk | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Irkutsk | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Irkutsk vs Murom?
- The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Irkutsk.
- Where and when is Irkutsk vs Murom played?
- Irkutsk vs Murom is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.