Irkutsk vs Cherepovets: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 26Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Irkutsk the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Cherepovets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Irkutsk vs Cherepovets?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Irkutsk (1,671) and Cherepovets (1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Irkutsk have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Cherepovets have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(home) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cherepovets(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Zvezda St. Petersburg(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Tosno(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 2(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tver(away) | 0-5 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Irkutsk win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cherepovets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cherepovets 1-2 Irkutsk | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Cherepovets 2-1 Irkutsk | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Irkutsk 2-1 Cherepovets | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Cherepovets vs Irkutsk on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Irkutsk score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cherepovets score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irkutsk | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Cherepovets | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Irkutsk sit 14th in Second League - Group 2 (10 points from 11 matches) and Cherepovets sit 6th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cherepovets | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Cherepovets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 24 |
| 14 | Irkutsk | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Irkutsk | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Irkutsk vs Cherepovets?
- The Footlab model makes Irkutsk the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Cherepovets.
- Where and when is Irkutsk vs Cherepovets played?
- Irkutsk vs Cherepovets is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.