Chester vs Chorley: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 21Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Deva Stadium, Chester, Cheshire
The Footlab AI model makes Chester the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chester vs Chorley?
On Elo ratings, Chester has 1,914 points and Chorley 1,842.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chester vs Chorley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chester
4-3-3- 9J. Hazel
- 11B. Waters
- 17C. Woods
- 12D. Ward
- 24C. Murphy
- 4D. Weeks
- 3Nathan Woodthorpe
- 5J. Griffin
- 33Samuel Reed
- 15Isaac Burgess
- 1Luke Hewitson
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chester have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Chorley have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-4 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lower Breck(away) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barton Town Old Boys(away) | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chester wins, 1 draw, 2 Chorley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chorley 1-2 Chester | National League - North |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Chester 3-3 Chorley | National League - North |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chorley 3-0 Chester | National League - North |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Chorley 3-2 Chester | National League - North |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Chester 2-1 Chorley | National League - North |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Chorley 0-2 Chester | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Chester score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chorley score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Chorley | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chester sit 4th in National League - North (20 points from 11 matches) and Chorley sit 9th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 20 |
| 9 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
A question about Chester vs Chorley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chester vs Chorley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chester the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Chester vs Chorley played?
- Chester vs Chorley is played on December 8, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Deva Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.