Chisola vs Derthona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Dino Marola, Vinovo
The Footlab model makes Chisola the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chisola vs Derthona?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Chisola (1,736) and Derthona (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chisola have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Derthona have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ligorna(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Valenzana(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lavagnese(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gozzano(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ligorna(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chisola win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Derthona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Derthona 0-1 Chisola | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Chisola 3-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Chisola 1-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Derthona 2-1 Chisola | Serie D - Girone A |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Chisola 3-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Derthona 2-1 Chisola | Serie D - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Chisola score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derthona score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chisola | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Derthona | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chisola sit 5th in Serie D - Girone A (55 points from 34 matches) and Derthona sit 14th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chisola | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 36 | 55 |
| 14 | Derthona | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chisola vs Derthona?
- The Footlab model makes Chisola the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Chisola vs Derthona played?
- Chisola vs Derthona is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Dino Marola, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.