Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante
The Footlab model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Celle Varazze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Sestri Levante (1,748) and Celle Varazze (1,728).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sestri Levante have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Celle Varazze have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sampdoria U20(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Genoa U20(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sanremese(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Celle Varazze(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Asti(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Imperia(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sestri Levante(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Derthona(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Sestri Levante win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Celle Varazze win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Celle Varazze 1-0 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sestri Levante 3-1 Celle Varazze | Serie D - Girone A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Sestri Levante 3-0 Celle Varazze | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sestri Levante score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Celle Varazze score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestri Levante | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Celle Varazze | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sestri Levante sit 6th in Serie D - Girone A (54 points from 34 matches) and Celle Varazze sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sestri Levante | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 34 | 54 |
| 9 | Celle Varazze | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 41 | 47 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze?
- The Footlab model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Celle Varazze.
- Where and when is Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze played?
- Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Sivori, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.