Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary: prediction and stats
4. liga - Divizie BGroup B - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech, Chomutov
The Footlab model makes Chomutov the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Karlovy Vary. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Chomutov (1,732) and Karlovy Vary (1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chomutov have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Karlovy Vary have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ústí nad Labem II(home) | 5-0 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baník Sokolov(away) | 1-0 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rapid Psáry(home) | 2-1 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Karlovy Vary(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Baník Sokolov(away) | 2-2 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Újezd Praha 4(home) | 4-1 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brandýs nad Labem(away) | 3-4 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Ústí nad Labem(home) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sokol Hostouň(home) | 3-2 | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chomutov(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chomutov win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Karlovy Vary win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Karlovy Vary 1-1 Chomutov | Cup |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Karlovy Vary 2-2 Chomutov | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chomutov 0-2 Karlovy Vary | 4. liga - Divizie B |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Karlovy Vary 5-1 Chomutov | Cup |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Karlovy Vary 4-0 Chomutov | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 17, 2022 | Chomutov 4-1 Karlovy Vary | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Karlovy Vary vs Chomutov on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chomutov score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Karlovy Vary score 2.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chomutov | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Karlovy Vary | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chomutov sit 1st in 4. liga - Divizie B (9 points from 3 matches) and Karlovy Vary sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chomutov | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Karlovy Vary | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary?
- The Footlab model makes Chomutov the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Karlovy Vary.
- Where and when is Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary played?
- Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech, in the 4. liga - Divizie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.