Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 37%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Hebburn Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,873) and Hebburn Town (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Hebburn Town have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brackley Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southport(home) | 3-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blyth Spartans(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hebburn Town score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Hebburn Town | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Hebburn Town sit 3rd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town?
- The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 37%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Hebburn Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Hebburn Town is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.