Match

Ciervos vs Real Refineros: prediction and stats

Liga Premier Serie AApertura - 19Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Arreola, Chalco de Díaz Covarrubias

CiervosReal Refineros

The Footlab AI model makes Real Refineros the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Ciervos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Refineros wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ciervos vs Real Refineros?

Real Refineros starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,802 vs 1,536).

23%22%55%
Ciervos winDrawReal Refineros win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ciervos vs Real Refineros

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ciervos

Not enough data to predict the Ciervos lineup.

Real Refineros

Not enough data to predict the Real Refineros lineup.

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:52 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ciervos have 1 win, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Real Refineros have 1, 3 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ciervos
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Acambaro(away)2-5Liga Premier Serie A
Oct 3, 2026Halcones Negros(home)0-5Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 25, 2026Real Refineros(away)3-3Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Calor de San Pedro(away)0-4Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Artesanos Metepec(home)0-3Liga Premier Serie A
Real Refineros
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Halcones Negros(home)2-3Liga Premier Serie A
Oct 4, 2026Dragones de Oaxaca(away)2-3Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 25, 2026Ciervos(home)3-3Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Delfines Coatzacoalcos(away)2-2Liga Premier Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Calor de San Pedro(home)0-0Liga Premier Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 0 Ciervos wins, 1 draw, 0 Real Refineros wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 25, 2026Real Refineros 3-3 CiervosLiga Premier Serie A

Last archived meeting: Real Refineros vs Ciervos on Sep 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ciervos score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Refineros score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ciervos0.92.708/1510/15
Real Refineros1.41.924/74/7

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ciervos sit 9th in Liga Premier Serie A (2 points from 7 matches) and Real Refineros sit 8th (7 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8Real Refineros721411137
9Ciervos71065242

A question about Ciervos vs Real Refineros?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ciervos vs Real Refineros?
The Footlab AI model makes Real Refineros the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Ciervos.
Where and when is Ciervos vs Real Refineros played?
Ciervos vs Real Refineros is played on February 6, 2027 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Arreola, in the Liga Premier Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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