Cittadella Vis Modena vs Città di Varese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Allegretti Campo A, San Damaso
The Footlab model makes Cittadella Vis Modena the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Città di Varese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cittadella Vis Modena vs Città di Varese?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Cittadella Vis Modena (1,745) and Città di Varese (1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cittadella Vis Modena have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Città di Varese have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Livorno(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rovato Vertovese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Renate(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Ligorna(away) | 3-5 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 9, 2026 | Biellese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Lavagnese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cittadella Vis Modena score 0.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Città di Varese score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella Vis Modena | 0.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Città di Varese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 24 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cittadella Vis Modena vs Città di Varese?
- The Footlab model makes Cittadella Vis Modena the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Città di Varese.
- Where and when is Cittadella Vis Modena vs Città di Varese played?
- Cittadella Vis Modena vs Città di Varese is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Allegretti Campo A, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.