Pistoiese vs Arconatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Melani, Pistoia
The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pistoiese vs Arconatese?
Pistoiese is a heavy favourite: 1,903 Elo points against 1,603 — a 301-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pistoiese have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Arconatese have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Piacenza(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| May 3, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Coriano(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Breno(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chievo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fanfulla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Pistoiese score 1.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Arconatese score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 1.9 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Arconatese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistoiese | 33 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pistoiese vs Arconatese?
- The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Pistoiese vs Arconatese played?
- Pistoiese vs Arconatese is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Melani, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.