Castellanzese vs Oltrepò: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, Castellanza
The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellanzese vs Oltrepò?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Castellanzese (1,657) and Oltrepò (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellanzese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Oltrepò have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Milan II(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Brusaporto(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villa Valle(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sondrio(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Calepina(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Castellanzese win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Oltrepò win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Oltrepò 2-0 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Castellanzese 2-2 Oltrepò | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Oltrepò vs Castellanzese on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellanzese score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Oltrepò score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Oltrepò | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellanzese vs Oltrepò?
- The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Castellanzese vs Oltrepò played?
- Castellanzese vs Oltrepò is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.