Concarneau vs Aubagne: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 22Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
The Footlab model makes Concarneau the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Aubagne. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Concarneau vs Aubagne?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Concarneau (1,774) and Aubagne (1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Concarneau have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Aubagne have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Villefranche(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Quevilly(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Laval(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bastia(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| May 15, 2026 | Caen(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Concarneau win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Aubagne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Concarneau 1-0 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Aubagne 1-1 Concarneau | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Aubagne 0-2 Concarneau | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Concarneau 0-0 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Concarneau score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aubagne score 0.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concarneau | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Aubagne | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Concarneau sit 9th in Ligue 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Aubagne sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Concarneau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Concarneau vs Aubagne?
- The Footlab model makes Concarneau the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Aubagne.
- Where and when is Concarneau vs Aubagne played?
- Concarneau vs Aubagne is played on February 27, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Francis-Le Blé, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.