Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 8Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Broadfield Stadium, Crawley, West Sussex
The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Crawley Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
Milton Keynes Dons starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,831 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crawley Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Milton Keynes Dons have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rochdale(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Watford(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | York(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oxford United(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Crawley Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Milton Keynes Dons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Crawley Town | League Two |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Crawley Town 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons | League Two |
| May 11, 2024 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town | League Two |
| May 7, 2024 | Crawley Town 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 Crawley Town | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2023 | Crawley Town 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town on Feb 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Crawley Town score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Milton Keynes Dons score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crawley Town sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Milton Keynes Dons sit 4th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crawley Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Crawley Town.
- Where and when is Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons played?
- Crawley Town vs Milton Keynes Dons is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Broadfield Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.