Rochdale vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rochdale win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | Rochdale 4-4 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Swindon Town 3-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Rochdale 0-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Swindon Town 2-2 Rochdale | League Two |
| Apr 13, 2021 | Rochdale 2-1 Swindon Town | League One |
| Sep 12, 2020 | Swindon Town 3-1 Rochdale | League One |
Last archived meeting: Rochdale vs Swindon Town on Mar 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 23rd in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Swindon Town sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Swindon Town played?
- Rochdale vs Swindon Town is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.