Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 17Kick-off on November 23, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Cruz Azul. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Guadalajara Chivas (1,994) and Cruz Azul (2,040).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Cruz Azul have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Cruz Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| May 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Cruz Azul 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Cruz Azul 3-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Cruz Azul sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Cruz Azul.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul is played on November 23, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.