Cumbayá vs El Nacional: prediction and stats
Liga Pro Serie BRelegation Group - 9Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
The Footlab AI model makes Cumbayá the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for El Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cumbayá wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cumbayá vs El Nacional?
On Elo ratings, Cumbayá has 1,575 points and El Nacional 1,512.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cumbayá vs El Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cumbayá
Not enough data to predict the Cumbayá lineup.
El Nacional
Not enough data to predict the El Nacional lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 11:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cumbayá have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; El Nacional have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 22 de Julio(home) | 7-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gualaceo SC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Santo Domingo(home) | 0-3 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Sep 26, 2026 | El Nacional(away) | 3-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 22 de Julio(away) | 7-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Santo Domingo(home) | 1-2 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 22 de Julio(away) | 5-2 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | LDU Portoviejo(away) | 2-3 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cumbayá(home) | 0-3 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Santo Domingo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cumbayá wins, 1 draw, 1 El Nacional win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | El Nacional 0-3 Cumbayá | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Jul 8, 2026 | El Nacional 0-1 Cumbayá | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Cumbayá 2-1 El Nacional | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | El Nacional 2-1 Cumbayá | Liga Pro |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Cumbayá 1-0 El Nacional | Liga Pro |
| Aug 26, 2023 | El Nacional 2-2 Cumbayá | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: El Nacional vs Cumbayá on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cumbayá score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; El Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbayá | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| El Nacional | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cumbayá sit 10th in Liga Pro Serie B (26 points from 22 matches) and El Nacional sit 12th (12 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 26 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 32 | 12 |
A question about Cumbayá vs El Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cumbayá vs El Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cumbayá the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for El Nacional.
- Where and when is Cumbayá vs El Nacional played?
- Cumbayá vs El Nacional is played on October 22, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, in the Liga Pro Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.