Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Defensa Y Justicia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente?
Independiente starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,923 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensa Y Justicia have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Independiente have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Defensa Y Justicia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Independiente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Independiente 3-1 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 4, 2024 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Independiente 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 20, 2022 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Independiente 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Independiente 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Defensa Y Justicia score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Independiente | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Independiente sit 5th (24 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 6 | Defensa Y Justicia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Defensa Y Justicia.
- Where and when is Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente played?
- Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.