Dender vs Excelsior Virton: prediction and stats
Challenger Pro LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)DENDER Football Complex, Denderleeuw
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Dender. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior Virton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dender vs Excelsior Virton?
Excelsior Virton starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (2,028 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dender vs Excelsior Virton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dender
5-3-2- 15K. Koton
- 7E. Mballa Amougou
- 18N. Rôdes
- 24M. Viltard
- 53A. Nhaili
- 21K. Cools
- 6B. Kerf
- 45Amine Daali
- 70M. Sambu
- 22I. Breugelmans
- 16J. Devriendt
Excelsior Virton
5-3-2- 11A. Hachem
- 17T. Tormin
- 8G. Arib
- 13A. Dembélé
- 10P. Wade
- 3A. Tchaptchet
- 4E. Kari
- 22S. Assengue
- 18J. Ntenda
- 24H. Lambotte
- 1C. De Schrevel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dender have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Excelsior Virton have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Club Brugge II(home) | 3-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Hoogstraten(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 1-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(home) | 3-4 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oostkamp(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 1-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | KRC Genk II(home) | 3-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Francs Borains(home) | 0-1 | Challenger Pro League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Dender wins, 1 draw, 1 Excelsior Virton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Excelsior Virton 0-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| Feb 24, 2023 | Dender 2-1 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Dender 3-4 Excelsior Virton | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Excelsior Virton 1-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior Virton vs Dender on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Dender score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Virton score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 1.5 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Excelsior Virton | 1.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dender sit 2nd in Challenger Pro League (18 points from 7 matches) and Excelsior Virton sit 6th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Dender vs Excelsior Virton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dender vs Excelsior Virton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior Virton the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Dender.
- Where and when is Dender vs Excelsior Virton played?
- Dender vs Excelsior Virton is played on February 13, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at DENDER Football Complex, in the Challenger Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.