Dender vs K. Lierse S.K.: prediction and stats
Challenger Pro LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)DENDER Football Complex, Denderleeuw
The Footlab model makes Dender the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for K. Lierse S.K.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dender vs K. Lierse S.K.?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Dender (1,779) and K. Lierse S.K. (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dender have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; K. Lierse S.K. have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 2-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(away) | 0-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oudenaarde(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Lommel United(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 2-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(away) | 0-3 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Thes Sport(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Merelbeke(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cappellen(away) | 6-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dender win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 K. Lierse S.K. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2025 | K. Lierse S.K. 1-5 Dender | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 13, 2024 | K. Lierse S.K. 2-4 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Dender 2-2 K. Lierse S.K. | Challenger Pro League |
| Dec 10, 2022 | K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Dender 2-3 K. Lierse S.K. | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 7, 2021 | K. Lierse S.K. 1-0 Dender | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: K. Lierse S.K. vs Dender on Jul 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Dender score 0.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; K. Lierse S.K. score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| K. Lierse S.K. | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dender sit 7th in Challenger Pro League (3 points from 2 matches) and K. Lierse S.K. sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dender | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | K. Lierse S.K. | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dender vs K. Lierse S.K.?
- The Footlab model makes Dender the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for K. Lierse S.K..
- Where and when is Dender vs K. Lierse S.K. played?
- Dender vs K. Lierse S.K. is played on December 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at DENDER Football Complex, in the Challenger Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.