Derby vs West Brom: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for West Brom. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs West Brom?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Derby (1,880) and West Brom (1,891).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; West Brom have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Derby win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 West Brom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Derby 1-1 West Brom | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | West Brom 0-1 Derby | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2025 | West Brom 1-1 Derby | League Cup |
| Apr 21, 2025 | West Brom 1-3 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Derby 2-1 West Brom | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2022 | Derby 1-0 West Brom | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; West Brom score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| West Brom | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 16th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and West Brom sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs West Brom?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for West Brom.
- Where and when is Derby vs West Brom played?
- Derby vs West Brom is played on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.