Southampton vs Swansea: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Swansea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Swansea?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Southampton (2,047) and Swansea (1,954).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Swansea have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Udinese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Southampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Swansea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Swansea 1-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Southampton 0-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Southampton 3-0 Swansea | FA Cup |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Swansea 1-3 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Southampton 5-0 Swansea | Championship |
| Jan 8, 2022 | Swansea 2-3 Southampton | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Swansea vs Southampton on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-4 points from 1 matches) and Swansea sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Swansea?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Swansea.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Swansea played?
- Southampton vs Swansea is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.