Cardiff vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,005 vs 1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cardiff win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Cardiff 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Stoke City 3-3 Cardiff | FA Cup |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Stoke City 2-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Cardiff 2-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Stoke City 0-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff vs Stoke City on Apr 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 12th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Stoke City sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Stoke City played?
- Cardiff vs Stoke City is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.