Derby vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Watford?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Derby (1,875) and Watford (1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Watford have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derby win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Watford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Watford 2-0 Derby | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Derby 2-3 Watford | Championship |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Derby 0-2 Watford | Championship |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Watford 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 19, 2021 | Watford 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2020 | Derby 0-1 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Watford | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 16th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Watford sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Watford?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Watford.
- Where and when is Derby vs Watford played?
- Derby vs Watford is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.