Derby vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derby wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Watford?
On Elo ratings, Derby has 1,863 points and Watford 1,775.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Watford
4-2-3-1- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 7O. Maamma
- 20M. Doumbia
- 6M. Pollock
- 23O. Traoré
- 4K. Keben
- 33J. Zemura
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Watford have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derby wins, 0 draws, 6 Watford wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Watford 2-0 Derby | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Derby 2-3 Watford | Championship |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Derby 0-2 Watford | Championship |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Watford 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 19, 2021 | Watford 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2020 | Derby 0-1 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 10 matches) and Watford sit 22nd (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derby the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Watford.
- Where and when is Derby vs Watford played?
- Derby vs Watford is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.