Derthona vs Ligorna: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Fausto Coppi, Tortona
The Footlab model makes Ligorna the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Derthona. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derthona vs Ligorna?
Ligorna starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (1,876 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derthona have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Ligorna have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 5-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 10, 2026 | Chisola(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | NovaRomentin(home) | 9-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Asti(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Biellese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derthona win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Ligorna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Ligorna 1-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Derthona 0-2 Ligorna | Serie D - Girone A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Ligorna 2-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Derthona 0-3 Ligorna | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 5, 2024 | Derthona 0-0 Ligorna | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Ligorna 3-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Derthona score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ligorna score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Ligorna | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derthona sit 14th in Serie D - Girone A (40 points from 34 matches) and Ligorna sit 2nd (72 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ligorna | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 64 | 26 | 72 |
| 14 | Derthona | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derthona vs Ligorna?
- The Footlab model makes Ligorna the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Derthona vs Ligorna played?
- Derthona vs Ligorna is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fausto Coppi, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.