Derthona vs Sestri Levante: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Fausto Coppi, Tortona
The Footlab model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derthona vs Sestri Levante?
Sestri Levante starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,748 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derthona have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Sestri Levante have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sampdoria U20(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Genoa U20(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sanremese(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Celle Varazze(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Asti(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derthona win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Sestri Levante win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Sestri Levante 4-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Derthona 1-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Sestri Levante 2-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Derthona 0-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Sestri Levante 1-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 12, 2021 | Derthona 1-2 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Sestri Levante vs Derthona on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derthona score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sestri Levante score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Sestri Levante | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derthona sit 14th in Serie D - Girone A (40 points from 34 matches) and Sestri Levante sit 6th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sestri Levante | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 34 | 54 |
| 14 | Derthona | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derthona vs Sestri Levante?
- The Footlab model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Derthona vs Sestri Levante played?
- Derthona vs Sestri Levante is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fausto Coppi, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.