Derthona vs Sestri Levante: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Fausto Coppi, Tortona
The Footlab AI model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sestri Levante wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derthona vs Sestri Levante?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Derthona (1,683) and Sestri Levante (1,751).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derthona vs Sestri Levante
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derthona
Not enough data to predict the Derthona lineup.
Sestri Levante
Not enough data to predict the Sestri Levante lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 07:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derthona have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Sestri Levante have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Asti(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Chisola(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alessandria(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Millesimo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celle Varazze(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Borgosesia(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Biellese(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derthona wins, 1 draw, 5 Sestri Levante wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Sestri Levante 4-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Derthona 1-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Sestri Levante 2-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Derthona 0-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Sestri Levante 1-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 12, 2021 | Derthona 1-2 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Sestri Levante vs Derthona on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derthona score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sestri Levante score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sestri Levante | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derthona sit 7th in Serie D - Girone A (12 points from 8 matches) and Sestri Levante sit 15th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Derthona vs Sestri Levante?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derthona vs Sestri Levante?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Derthona vs Sestri Levante played?
- Derthona vs Sestri Levante is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fausto Coppi, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.