Sestri Levante vs Derthona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante
The Footlab AI model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sestri Levante wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 3,337 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sestri Levante vs Derthona?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Sestri Levante (1,742) and Derthona (1,675).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sestri Levante vs Derthona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sestri Levante
Not enough data to predict the Sestri Levante lineup.
Derthona
Not enough data to predict the Derthona lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 04:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sestri Levante have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Derthona have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celle Varazze(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Borgosesia(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Biellese(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Asti(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Chisola(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alessandria(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Millesimo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sestri Levante wins, 1 draw, 0 Derthona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Sestri Levante 4-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Derthona 1-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Sestri Levante 2-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Derthona 0-3 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Sestri Levante 1-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 12, 2021 | Derthona 1-2 Sestri Levante | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Sestri Levante vs Derthona on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sestri Levante score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derthona score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestri Levante | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Derthona | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sestri Levante sit 15th in Serie D - Girone A (8 points from 8 matches) and Derthona sit 7th (12 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Sestri Levante vs Derthona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sestri Levante vs Derthona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sestri Levante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Sestri Levante vs Derthona played?
- Sestri Levante vs Derthona is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Sivori, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.