Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for HNK Gorica. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?
Dinamo Zagreb is a heavy favourite: 2,165 Elo points against 1,790 — a 375-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dinamo Zagreb have 12 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats; HNK Gorica have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudes(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 1-2 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Dinamo Zagreb win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 HNK Gorica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | HNK Gorica 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Apr 8, 2026 | HNK Gorica 3-6 Dinamo Zagreb | Cup |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 4-2 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Dec 1, 2025 | HNK Gorica 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Apr 23, 2025 | HNK Gorica 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dinamo Zagreb score 2.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Gorica score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| HNK Gorica | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dinamo Zagreb sit 1st in HNL (9 points from 3 matches) and HNK Gorica sit 10th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for HNK Gorica.
- Where and when is Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica played?
- Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Maksimir, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.