Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for HNK Rijeka. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
Dinamo Zagreb starts as the favourite with a 176-point Elo edge (2,174 vs 1,998).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dinamo Zagreb have 12 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats; HNK Rijeka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudes(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Dinamo Zagreb win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 HNK Rijeka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HNK Rijeka | Cup |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Feb 8, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dinamo Zagreb score 2.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dinamo Zagreb sit 1st in HNL (9 points from 3 matches) and HNK Rijeka sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for HNK Rijeka.
- Where and when is Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka played?
- Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Maksimir, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.