Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
The Footlab model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Istra 1961. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
HNK Hajduk Split starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,026 vs 1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istra 1961 have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; HNK Hajduk Split have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(away) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(home) | 3-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | HNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Istra 1961 win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 HNK Hajduk Split win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Istra 1961 1-3 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Jan 25, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Istra 1961 0-3 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Aug 3, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Apr 23, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 Istra 1961 | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Hajduk Split score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istra 1961 sit 7th in HNL (4 points from 4 matches) and HNK Hajduk Split sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Istra 1961.
- Where and when is Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split played?
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aldo Drosina, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.