Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS: prediction and stats
Sul-MatogrossenseMatchday 2Kick-off on January 20, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Francisco Chaves Filho, Itaporã, Mato Grosso do Sul
The Footlab AI model makes Dourados Atlético the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Comercial MS. The most likely score is 1-1. If Dourados Atlético wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,715 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS?
Dourados Atlético starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,504 vs 1,379).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dourados Atlético
4-3-3- 9Luan Miguel
- 20Keslley dos Santos Lopes
- GGabriel Barcos
- 10Diego Rosa
- HHippólito
- 11Flaviano
- 6Thiago Moura
- JJúnior Prego
- LLeo de Souza Junior
- ÁÁdson
- 1Felipe
Comercial MS
4-3-3- VValderlei Saldanha Araújo
- UUelison
- NNilson Diego Ferrerra
- LLucas Romeiro Alves
- AAnderson Ferreira Gibran
- SSousa
- DDavid Lopes
- LLeonardo
- JJeferson
- FFabricio Lopes de Souza
- AAdailson Martins
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:26 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dourados Atlético have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Comercial MS have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Corumbaense(away) | 0-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Corumbaense(home) | 1-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 1, 2026 | CR Aquidauana(home) | 3-3 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Corumbaense(away) | 0-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Bataguassu(home) | 7-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2023 | Operario Ferroviario(away) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Costa Rica (home) | 2-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Chapadão(home) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Coxim(away) | 0-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Chapadão(away) | 1-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Dourados Atlético win, 0 draws, 1 Comercial MS win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | Comercial MS 0-1 Dourados Atlético | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Dourados Atlético 0-1 Comercial MS | Sul-Matogrossense |
Last archived meeting: Comercial MS vs Dourados Atlético on May 10, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Dourados Atlético score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Comercial MS score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dourados Atlético | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Comercial MS | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dourados Atlético | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS?
- The Footlab AI model makes Dourados Atlético the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Comercial MS.
- Where and when is Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS played?
- Dourados Atlético vs Comercial MS is played on January 20, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Francisco Chaves Filho, in the Sul-Matogrossense.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.