Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stark's Park, Kirkcaldy
The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Stenhousemuir. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Raith Rovers (1,814) and Stenhousemuir (1,813).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Raith Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Stenhousemuir have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Raith Rovers win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Stenhousemuir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers 1-1 Stenhousemuir | Championship |
| Apr 6, 2019 | Stenhousemuir 1-1 Raith Rovers | League One |
| Jan 5, 2019 | Raith Rovers 5-1 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Nov 17, 2018 | Stenhousemuir 1-3 Raith Rovers | League One |
| Aug 11, 2018 | Raith Rovers 2-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
Last archived meeting: Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Raith Rovers score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rovers | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Raith Rovers sit 2nd in Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Stenhousemuir sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir?
- The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Stenhousemuir.
- Where and when is Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir played?
- Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stark's Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.