Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf: prediction and stats
Oberliga - MittelrheinMittelrhein - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Westkampfbahn, Düren
The Footlab model makes TuS BW Königsdorf the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Düren Merzenich. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Düren Merzenich (1,730) and TuS BW Königsdorf (1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Düren Merzenich have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; TuS BW Königsdorf have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Fortuna Köln II(home) | 2-5 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 31, 2026 | Eintracht Hohkeppel(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 22, 2026 | TuS BW Königsdorf(home) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 17, 2026 | Bornheim(away) | 2-4 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 10, 2026 | Siegburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | VfL Vichttal(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 22, 2026 | Düren Merzenich(away) | 0-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 17, 2026 | Fortuna Köln II(home) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 10, 2026 | Eintracht Hohkeppel(away) | 1-6 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| May 3, 2026 | SF Düren(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Düren Merzenich win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 TuS BW Königsdorf win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Düren Merzenich 2-0 TuS BW Königsdorf | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Nov 30, 2025 | TuS BW Königsdorf 2-0 Düren Merzenich | Oberliga - Mittelrhein |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Düren Merzenich 4-1 TuS BW Königsdorf | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Düren Merzenich score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; TuS BW Königsdorf score 1.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Düren Merzenich | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| TuS BW Königsdorf | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Düren Merzenich sit 11th in Oberliga - Mittelrhein (38 points from 30 matches) and TuS BW Königsdorf sit 9th (46 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 53 | 54 | 46 |
| 11 | Düren Merzenich | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 49 | 59 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf?
- The Footlab model makes TuS BW Königsdorf the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Düren Merzenich.
- Where and when is Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf played?
- Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Westkampfbahn, in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.