DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Zuid DVS '33, Ermelo
The Footlab model makes DVS 33 Ermelo the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior '31. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate DVS 33 Ermelo (1,818) and Excelsior '31 (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, DVS 33 Ermelo have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Excelsior '31 have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(home) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SC Genemuiden(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GVVV Veenendaal(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Rijnvogels(home) | 2-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 27, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 DVS 33 Ermelo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Excelsior '31 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo 1-2 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Excelsior '31 0-1 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| Mar 15, 2025 | DVS 33 Ermelo 4-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Excelsior '31 1-2 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| May 20, 2023 | Excelsior '31 4-0 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| Nov 26, 2022 | DVS 33 Ermelo 1-1 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31 on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
DVS 33 Ermelo score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVS 33 Ermelo | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
DVS 33 Ermelo sit 16th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior '31 sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31?
- The Footlab model makes DVS 33 Ermelo the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Excelsior '31.
- Where and when is DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31 played?
- DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31 is played on May 15, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.