Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Dynamo Kyiv the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Karpaty. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty?
Dynamo Kyiv starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,014 vs 1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dynamo Kyiv have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Karpaty have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Qarabag(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Veres Rivne(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | PAOK(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Dynamo Kyiv win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Karpaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv 0-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Karpaty 3-3 Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Karpaty 1-3 Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2019 | Dynamo Kyiv 1-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2019 | Karpaty 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dynamo Kyiv score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dynamo Kyiv sit 4th in Premier League (6 points from 2 matches) and Karpaty sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty?
- The Footlab model makes Dynamo Kyiv the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Karpaty.
- Where and when is Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty played?
- Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.