Ebro vs Castellón II: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Almozara, Zaragoza
The Footlab model makes Ebro the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Castellón II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebro vs Castellón II?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Ebro (1,908) and Castellón II (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ebro have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Castellón II have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huesca II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Utebo(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eibar II(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Teruel(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | SD Logroñés(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | SD Logroñés(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Girona II(home) | 4-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barbastro(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ebro score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón II score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebro | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Castellón II | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ebro | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 42 | 36 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebro vs Castellón II?
- The Footlab model makes Ebro the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Castellón II.
- Where and when is Ebro vs Castellón II played?
- Ebro vs Castellón II is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Almozara, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.