Eibar vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab model makes Eibar the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar vs Burgos?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Eibar (2,017) and Burgos (2,005).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Burgos have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Eibar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Burgos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Eibar 0-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Burgos 1-0 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Burgos 1-0 Eibar | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2025 | Eibar 1-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Burgos 1-0 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Eibar 0-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 1.6 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Burgos | 1.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar sit 12th in Segunda División (3 points from 2 matches) and Burgos sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Burgos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Eibar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar vs Burgos?
- The Footlab model makes Eibar the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Eibar vs Burgos played?
- Eibar vs Burgos is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.