El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, El Palmar
The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for El Palmar. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II?
UCAM Murcia II starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Palmar have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; UCAM Murcia II have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 El Palmar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 UCAM Murcia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar 0-4 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 1-0 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 2-2 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 11, 2024 | El Palmar 1-3 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | El Palmar 0-4 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | UCAM Murcia II 1-2 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; UCAM Murcia II score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Palmar | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| UCAM Murcia II | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Palmar sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (32 points from 34 matches) and UCAM Murcia II sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 55 |
| 14 | El Palmar | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II?
- The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for El Palmar.
- Where and when is El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II played?
- El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.