Where and when is El Porvenir vs Canuelas played?

El Porvenir vs Canuelas is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich, in the Primera C.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

El Porvenir vs Canuelas: prediction and stats

Primera CRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich, Gerli, Provincia de Buenos Aires

El Porvenir

Canuelas

The Footlab model makes Canuelas the favourite at 41%, against 36% for a draw and 24% for El Porvenir. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win El Porvenir vs Canuelas?

A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate El Porvenir (1,548) and Canuelas (1,620).

El Porvenir win24 %

Draw36 %

Canuelas win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Porvenir have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Canuelas have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

El Porvenir
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Central Ballester(home)	0-0	Primera C
Aug 16, 2026	JJ Urquiza(away)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 8, 2026	Yupanqui(home)	0-3	Primera C
Aug 4, 2026	Fénix(home)	0-0	Primera C
Jul 28, 2026	Sportivo Barracas(away)	2-3	Primera C

Canuelas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Leones de Rosario(home)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 15, 2026	Estrella Del Sur(home)	1-2	Primera C
Aug 9, 2026	Atletico Atlas(away)	0-2	Primera C
Aug 3, 2026	Yupanqui(away)	2-1	Primera C
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Muñiz(home)	0-1	Primera C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 El Porvenir win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Canuelas win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 7, 2026	Canuelas 0-0 El Porvenir	Primera C
Nov 1, 2019	Canuelas 3-0 El Porvenir	Primera C
Mar 12, 2019	El Porvenir 1-1 Canuelas	Primera C
Sep 30, 2018	Canuelas 3-2 El Porvenir	Primera C
Apr 21, 2018	Canuelas 1-2 El Porvenir	Primera C
Nov 28, 2017	El Porvenir 1-1 Canuelas	Primera C

Last archived meeting: Canuelas vs El Porvenir on Jun 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

El Porvenir score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Canuelas score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
El Porvenir	0.5	0.8	8	3/15	3/15
Canuelas	1.1	0.7	8	5/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

El Porvenir sit 10th in Primera C (30 points from 25 matches) and Canuelas sit 2nd (42 points from 25 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Canuelas	25	11	9	5	27	18	42
10	El Porvenir	25	5	15	5	18	21	30

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for El Porvenir vs Canuelas?: The Footlab model makes Canuelas the favourite at 41%, against 36% for a draw and 24% for El Porvenir.
Where and when is El Porvenir vs Canuelas played?: El Porvenir vs Canuelas is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich, in the Primera C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.