Match

Elche II vs Lorca Deportiva: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Díez Iborra (Ciudad Deportiva de Elche), Elche

Elche IILorca Deportiva

The Footlab model makes Elche II the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Lorca Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Elche II vs Lorca Deportiva?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Elche II (1,856) and Lorca Deportiva (1,860).

Elche II win45 %
Draw28 %
Lorca Deportiva win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche II have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Lorca Deportiva have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Elche II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 19, 2026FC Cartagena(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026Quintanar del Rey(home)1-3Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026CD Coria(away)0-4Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026Rayo Majadahonda(home)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026Tenerife II(away)3-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Lorca Deportiva
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Águilas(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026Deportiva Minera(away)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026Yeclano(home)2-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026Águilas(away)0-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 12, 2026Xerez(home)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Elche II score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lorca Deportiva score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Elche II1.71.738/159/15
Lorca Deportiva0.81.236/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2024-25 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Elche II34121111433847

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Elche II vs Lorca Deportiva?
The Footlab model makes Elche II the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Lorca Deportiva.
Where and when is Elche II vs Lorca Deportiva played?
Elche II vs Lorca Deportiva is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Díez Iborra (Ciudad Deportiva de Elche), in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Elche II and Lorca Deportiva

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