Erbil vs Karbala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Karbala. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Karbala?
Erbil is a heavy favourite: 1,676 Elo points against 1,341, a 335-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erbil vs Karbala
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Karbala
Not enough data to predict the Karbala lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Karbala have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Erbil(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Naft(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Erbil wins, 0 draws, 0 Karbala wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala 0-3 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 2, 2025 | Karbala 0-2 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Erbil 3-1 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Erbil 4-1 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Karbala 3-5 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Erbil 1-0 Karbala | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Karbala score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Karbala | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 4th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Karbala sit 20th (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 20 | Karbala | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Erbil vs Karbala?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Karbala?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Karbala played?
- Erbil vs Karbala is played on May 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.