Erbil vs Naft Maysan: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Franso Hariri Stadium, Erbil
The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Naft Maysan. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erbil vs Naft Maysan?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,661 vs 1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erbil have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Naft Maysan have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Gharraf(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 24, 2026 | Al Najaf(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Erbil win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Naft Maysan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Naft Maysan 0-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Erbil 1-0 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| May 7, 2025 | Erbil 3-2 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Naft Maysan 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Jun 19, 2024 | Erbil 2-0 Naft Maysan | Iraqi League |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Naft Maysan 1-1 Erbil | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Erbil score 1.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Naft Maysan score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erbil | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Naft Maysan | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erbil sit 1st in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Naft Maysan sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erbil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Naft Maysan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erbil vs Naft Maysan?
- The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Naft Maysan.
- Where and when is Erbil vs Naft Maysan played?
- Erbil vs Naft Maysan is played on February 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Franso Hariri Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.