Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund: prediction and stats
Oberliga - WestfalenWestfalen - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stimberg-Stadion, Oer-Erkenschwick
The Footlab model makes ASC Dortmund the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Erkenschwick. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund?
ASC Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,651).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erkenschwick have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; ASC Dortmund have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gievenbeck(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ennepetal(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Aug 9, 2026 | TuS Hordel(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| May 31, 2026 | Vreden(away) | 0-3 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| May 25, 2026 | SG Wattenscheid 09(home) | 1-5 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vreden(away) | 2-5 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Maaslingen(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| May 31, 2026 | Ennepetal(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| May 25, 2026 | Vreden(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| May 17, 2026 | SG Wattenscheid 09(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Westfalen |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Erkenschwick win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 ASC Dortmund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Erkenschwick 2-3 ASC Dortmund | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Nov 2, 2025 | ASC Dortmund 2-4 Erkenschwick | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Erkenschwick 0-5 ASC Dortmund | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Nov 10, 2024 | ASC Dortmund 2-2 Erkenschwick | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Erkenschwick 3-0 ASC Dortmund | Oberliga - Westfalen |
| Sep 3, 2023 | ASC Dortmund 0-1 Erkenschwick | Oberliga - Westfalen |
Last archived meeting: Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Erkenschwick score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; ASC Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erkenschwick | 0.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| ASC Dortmund | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erkenschwick sit 3rd in Oberliga - Westfalen (7 points from 3 matches) and ASC Dortmund sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Erkenschwick | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 16 | ASC Dortmund | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund?
- The Footlab model makes ASC Dortmund the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Erkenschwick.
- Where and when is Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund played?
- Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stimberg-Stadion, in the Oberliga - Westfalen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 18, 2026MaaslingenvsSchermbeck
- Oct 18, 2026Westfalia KinderhausvsHiltrup
- Oct 18, 2026Lippstadt 08vsEintracht Rheine
- Oct 18, 2026GievenbeckvsVreden
- Oct 18, 2026Preußen Münster IIvsVerl II
- Oct 18, 2026Victoria ClarholzvsArminia II
- Oct 18, 2026EnnepetalvsSpVgg Herne Horsthausen
- Oct 18, 2026TuS HordelvsSprockhovel