Where and when is Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried played?

Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried is played on October 9, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Waldstadion Erlbach, in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried: prediction and stats

Oberliga - Bayern SüdBayern Süd - 14Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Waldstadion Erlbach, Erlbach

Erlbach

TuS Geretsried

The Footlab model makes Erlbach the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for TuS Geretsried. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried?

A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Erlbach (1,804) and TuS Geretsried (1,746).

Erlbach win52 %

Draw26 %

TuS Geretsried win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erlbach have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; TuS Geretsried have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erlbach
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Sportfreunde Schwaig(away)	0-0	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 18, 2026	Kirchanschöring(away)	1-0	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 14, 2026	Gundelfingen(home)	1-1	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 7, 2026	1880 Wasserburg(away)	2-2	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Jul 31, 2026	Deisenhofen(home)	1-0	Oberliga - Bayern Süd

TuS Geretsried
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Pfaffenhofen(home)	2-3	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 18, 2026	Schalding-Heining(away)	5-1	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 15, 2026	Schwabmünchen(home)	0-0	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Aug 8, 2026	Sportfreunde Schwaig(home)	2-1	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Jul 31, 2026	Heimstetten(away)	1-1	Oberliga - Bayern Süd

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Erlbach win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 TuS Geretsried win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 10, 2026	Erlbach 1-2 TuS Geretsried	Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Sep 27, 2025	TuS Geretsried 1-2 Erlbach	Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Last archived meeting: Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried on Apr 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Erlbach score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; TuS Geretsried score 2.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erlbach	1.1	1.1	7	4/15	5/15
TuS Geretsried	2.0	1.6	2	12/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erlbach sit 5th in Oberliga - Bayern Süd (53 points from 32 matches) and TuS Geretsried sit 11th (45 points from 34 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erlbach	32	16	5	11	42	35	53
11	TuS Geretsried	34	12	9	13	50	50	45

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried?: The Footlab model makes Erlbach the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for TuS Geretsried.
Where and when is Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried played?: Erlbach vs TuS Geretsried is played on October 9, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Waldstadion Erlbach, in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.