Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Samsunspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Erzurumspor FK (1,950) and Samsunspor (2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzurumspor FK have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Samsunspor have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 3-3 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Erzurumspor FK win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Samsunspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2023 | Samsunspor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 2-2 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Samsunspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Feb 11, 2018 | Samsunspor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| Sep 10, 2017 | Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Samsunspor vs Erzurumspor FK on Jan 30, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Samsunspor score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Samsunspor | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erzurumspor FK sit 18th in Süper Lig (0 points from 2 matches) and Samsunspor sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Samsunspor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
- The Footlab model makes Erzurumspor FK the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Samsunspor.
- Where and when is Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor played?
- Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor is played on September 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.