Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Erzurumspor FK. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
Fenerbahçe starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (2,208 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fenerbahçe have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Erzurumspor FK have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Konyaspor(home) | 4-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Fenerbahçe win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Erzurumspor FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 5-0 Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| May 3, 2021 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Jan 11, 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 0-3 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| May 20, 2019 | Erzurumspor FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Dec 17, 2018 | Fenerbahçe 2-2 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK on Feb 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fenerbahçe score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fenerbahçe sit 8th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Erzurumspor FK sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Erzurumspor FK.
- Where and when is Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK played?
- Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK is played on November 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.