Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Esenler Erokspor (1,906) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esenler Erokspor have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sarıyer(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 24, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Esenler Erokspor win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 2-5 Fatih Karagümrük | Türkiye Kupası |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 Esenler Erokspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük on Dec 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esenler Erokspor sit 11th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Esenler Erokspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.