ESMTK vs Csepel: prediction and stats
NB III - SoutheastSoutheast - 17Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)ESMTK Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Csepel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ESMTK vs Csepel?
ESMTK starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ESMTK have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Csepel have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Algyő SK(away) | 3-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BKV Előre(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Csepel(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hódmezővásárhely(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monori Se(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Csepel UFC(away) | 3-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hódmezővásárhely(away) | 1-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | ESMTK(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Monori Se(away) | 0-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 25, 2026 | III. Kerületi TUE(away) | 0-2 | NB III - Southeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 ESMTK win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Csepel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Csepel 2-1 ESMTK | NB III - Southeast |
| Nov 23, 2025 | ESMTK 1-2 Csepel | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Csepel 2-0 ESMTK | NB III - Southeast |
How many goals should we expect?
ESMTK score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Csepel score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESMTK | 2.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 14/15 |
| Csepel | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ESMTK sit 6th in NB III - Southeast (7 points from 4 matches) and Csepel sit 9th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ESMTK | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Csepel | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ESMTK vs Csepel?
- The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Csepel.
- Where and when is ESMTK vs Csepel played?
- ESMTK vs Csepel is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at ESMTK Stadion, in the NB III - Southeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.