Espanyol vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Stage Front Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Espanyol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 294-point Elo edge (2,336 vs 2,043).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Espanyol have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Madrid have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Espanyol win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Espanyol 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Espanyol 1-0 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Real Madrid 3-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2022 | Espanyol 1-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Espanyol vs Real Madrid on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Espanyol score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Espanyol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Who is out?
10 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Javi PuadoEspanyolOut(Knee Injury)
- Kike GarcíaEspanyolOut(Hamstring Injury)
- L. CabreraEspanyolOut(Red Card)
- A. TchouaméniReal MadridOut(Muscle Injury)
- Éder MilitãoReal MadridOut(Hamstring Injury)
- EndrickReal MadridOut(Muscle Injury)
- F. MendyReal MadridOut(Hip Injury)
- Raúl AsencioReal MadridOut(Muscle Injury)
- RodrygoReal MadridOut(Knee Injury)
- Thiago PitarchReal MadridOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Espanyol.
- Where and when is Espanyol vs Real Madrid played?
- Espanyol vs Real Madrid is played on August 22, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Stage Front Stadium, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.